Lugano II 1–3 St. Gallen II: Result & Stats

Lugano II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

St. Gallen II

3/2/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Centro Sportivo Al Maglio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lugano II43%

×Draw22%

St. Gallen II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lugano IIExpected goals in this matchSt. Gallen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.65

Lugano II

1.86

St. Gallen II

1.65

Lugano II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

1.37

creates per match

1.73

1.57

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Lugano II

1.37

St. Gallen II

1.73

allows per match

Lugano II

1.57

St. Gallen II

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugano II+0.00on par

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano II ↓

St. Gallen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lugano II or draw

65%

Lugano II or St. Gallen II

78%

Draw or St. Gallen II

57%

Winning margin

Lugano II wins by 2+

23%

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lugano II 1+ goals

84%

Lugano II 2+ goals

55%

Lugano II 3+ goals

28%

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

81%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

49%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lugano II (draw refunded)

55%

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano II attack 1.37 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.86

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Lugano II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lugano II scores more

43%

level

22%

St. Gallen II scores more

35%

Lugano II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lugano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff