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Luftetari Gjirokaster vs Teuta Durrës — Superliga 2018

Luftetari Gjirokaster
Luftetari Gjirokaster
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
11/9/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 12Stadiumi Gjirokastra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster30%
×Draw29%
Teuta Durrës41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.18

Teuta Durrës creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

creates per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.81
Teuta Durrës
0.93

allows per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.12

finishing

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par
Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luftetari Gjirokaster ↓

Teuta Durrës →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Luftetari Gjirokaster or draw
59%
Luftetari Gjirokaster or Teuta Durrës
71%
Draw or Teuta Durrës
70%

Winning margin

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+
11%
Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals
62%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals
25%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals
7%
Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
69%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
33%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)
42%
Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luftetari Gjirokaster at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.81 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more
30%
level
29%
Teuta Durrës scores more
41%

Teuta Durrës at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luftetari Gjirokaster vs Teuta Durrës

Luftetari Gjirokaster and Teuta Durrës drew 0-0 in Superliga on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Gjirokastra in Gjirokastër.