Luftetari Gjirokaster 0–1 Skenderbeu Korce

Luftetari Gjirokaster

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Skenderbeu Korce

7/18/2020

Superliga · Round 34Stadiumi Gjirokastra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster33%

×Draw29%

Skenderbeu Korce38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luftetari GjirokasterExpected goals in this matchSkenderbeu Korce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.16

Luftetari Gjirokaster

1.05

Skenderbeu Korce

1.16

Skenderbeu Korce creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 109 away

0.81

creates per match

0.89

1.42

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.81

Skenderbeu Korce

0.89

allows per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster

1.42

Skenderbeu Korce

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luftetari Gjirokaster ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Luftetari Gjirokaster or draw

62%

Luftetari Gjirokaster or Skenderbeu Korce

71%

Draw or Skenderbeu Korce

67%

Winning margin

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+

13%

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals

65%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals

28%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals

9%

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

69%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

32%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)

46%

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luftetari Gjirokaster at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.81 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.89 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more

33%

level

29%

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

38%

Skenderbeu Korce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff