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Ludwigsfelde vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
4 – 2
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
8/28/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 5Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde56%
×Draw22%
Victoria Seelow22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.95
Victoria Seelow
1.15

Ludwigsfelde creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.13
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.40
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
78%
Ludwigsfelde or Victoria Seelow
78%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
44%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
33%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
86%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
58%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
31%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
68%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
32%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
72%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.95

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
56%
level
22%
Victoria Seelow scores more
22%

Ludwigsfelde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludwigsfelde vs Victoria Seelow

Ludwigsfelde beat Victoria Seelow 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Ludwigsfelde.