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Ludwigsfelde vs VfL Halle — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
2 – 2
VfL Halle
VfL Halle
9/6/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ludwigsfelde35%
×Draw24%
VfL Halle41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.43
VfL Halle
1.58

VfL Halle creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.10
VfL Halle
1.62

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.54
VfL Halle
1.75

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

VfL Halle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
59%
Ludwigsfelde or VfL Halle
76%
Draw or VfL Halle
65%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
16%
VfL Halle wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
76%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
42%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
17%
VfL Halle 1+ goals
79%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
47%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
46%
VfL Halle (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
35%
level
24%
VfL Halle scores more
41%

VfL Halle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Ludwigsfelde 2–2 VfL Halle

Ludwigsfelde and VfL Halle drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz in Ludwigsfelde.