Ludwigsfelde 0–0 Tennis Borussia: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

FT

0 – 0

Tennis Borussia

1/7/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ludwigsfelde22%

×Draw22%

Tennis Borussia56%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchTennis Borussia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.92

Ludwigsfelde

1.13

Tennis Borussia

1.92

Tennis Borussia creates 70% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

0.67

creates per match

1.84

2.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

0.67

Tennis Borussia

1.84

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

2.00

Tennis Borussia

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Tennis Borussia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

44%

Ludwigsfelde or Tennis Borussia

78%

Draw or Tennis Borussia

78%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

8%

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

68%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

31%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

11%

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals

85%

Tennis Borussia 2+ goals

57%

Tennis Borussia 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

28%

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.67 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tennis Borussia attack 1.84 + Ludwigsfelde defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

22%

level

22%

Tennis Borussia scores more

56%

Tennis Borussia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff