Ludwigsfelde 4–0 MSV Neuruppin: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

MSV Neuruppin

3/5/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 19Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde47%

×Draw24%

MSV Neuruppin29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchMSV Neuruppin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

Ludwigsfelde

1.66

MSV Neuruppin

1.25

Ludwigsfelde creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

1.13

creates per match

1.09

1.40

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.13

MSV Neuruppin

1.09

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.40

MSV Neuruppin

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

MSV Neuruppin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

71%

Ludwigsfelde or MSV Neuruppin

76%

Draw or MSV Neuruppin

53%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

25%

MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

81%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

49%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

23%

MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals

71%

MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals

36%

MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

62%

MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

MSV Neuruppin away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + MSV Neuruppin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.09 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

47%

level

24%

MSV Neuruppin scores more

29%

Ludwigsfelde at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff