Ludwigsfelde 3–0 Motor Marienberg: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Motor Marienberg

8/6/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 2Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde64%

×Draw19%

Motor Marienberg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchMotor Marienberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.14

Ludwigsfelde

2.35

Motor Marienberg

1.14

Ludwigsfelde creates 106% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

1.10

creates per match

0.73

1.54

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.10

Motor Marienberg

0.73

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.54

Motor Marienberg

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Motor Marienberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

83%

Ludwigsfelde or Motor Marienberg

81%

Draw or Motor Marienberg

36%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

42%

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

90%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

68%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

41%

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

68%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

32%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

79%

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.35

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

64%

level

19%

Motor Marienberg scores more

17%

Ludwigsfelde at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff