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Ludwigsfelde vs Mecklenburg Schwerin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mecklenburg Schwerin
Mecklenburg Schwerin
5/7/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 27Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde46%
×Draw23%
Mecklenburg Schwerin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.77
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.40

Ludwigsfelde creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.13
Mecklenburg Schwerin
1.39

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.40
Mecklenburg Schwerin
2.42

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Mecklenburg Schwerin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
69%
Ludwigsfelde or Mecklenburg Schwerin
77%
Draw or Mecklenburg Schwerin
54%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
25%
Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
83%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
53%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
26%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals
75%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals
41%
Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
60%
Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.39 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
46%
level
23%
Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more
31%

Ludwigsfelde at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Ludwigsfelde 2–0 Mecklenburg Schwerin

Ludwigsfelde beat Mecklenburg Schwerin 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Ludwigsfelde.