Ludwigsfelde 0–1 Hansa Rostock II: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hansa Rostock II

2/5/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde28%

×Draw22%

Hansa Rostock II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.90

Ludwigsfelde

1.38

Hansa Rostock II

1.90

Hansa Rostock II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.13

creates per match

2.39

1.40

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.13

Hansa Rostock II

2.39

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.40

Hansa Rostock II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Hansa Rostock II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

50%

Ludwigsfelde or Hansa Rostock II

78%

Draw or Hansa Rostock II

72%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

12%

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

75%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

40%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

16%

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals

85%

Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals

56%

Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

36%

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Hansa Rostock II away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.39 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

28%

level

22%

Hansa Rostock II scores more

50%

Hansa Rostock II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff