Ludwigsfelde 0–1 Energie Cottbus: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

0 – 1

Energie Cottbus

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ludwigsfelde11%

×Draw15%

Energie Cottbus74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.87

Ludwigsfelde

1.05

Energie Cottbus

2.87

Energie Cottbus creates 173% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.71

creates per match

3.60

2.14

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

0.71

Energie Cottbus

3.60

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

2.14

Energie Cottbus

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Energie Cottbus →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–38%

0–46%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

26%

Ludwigsfelde or Energie Cottbus

85%

Draw or Energie Cottbus

89%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

Energie Cottbus wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

65%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

28%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

Energie Cottbus 1+ goals

94%

Energie Cottbus 2+ goals

77%

Energie Cottbus 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

13%

Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Energie Cottbus away — creates 3.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.71 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Energie Cottbus attack 3.60 + Ludwigsfelde defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

11%

level

15%

Energie Cottbus scores more

74%

Energie Cottbus at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Energie Cottbus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff