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Ludwigsfelde vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
3 – 3
Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
10/25/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 9Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ludwigsfelde34%
×Draw24%
Carl Zeiss Jena II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.48
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.66

Carl Zeiss Jena II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.10
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.77

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.54
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.86

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
58%
Ludwigsfelde or Carl Zeiss Jena II
76%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II
66%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
16%
Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
77%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
43%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
19%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
81%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
49%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
45%
Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
34%
level
24%
Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
42%

Carl Zeiss Jena II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludwigsfelde vs Carl Zeiss Jena II

Ludwigsfelde and Carl Zeiss Jena II drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz in Ludwigsfelde.