Ludwigsfelde 2–3 Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

Ludwigsfelde

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

3/26/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 17Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde41%

×Draw25%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß 90 Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.38

Ludwigsfelde

1.54

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

1.38

Ludwigsfelde creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

1.13

creates per match

1.35

1.40

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.13

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

1.35

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.40

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

66%

Ludwigsfelde or Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

75%

Draw or Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

59%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

20%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

79%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

45%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

20%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 1+ goals

75%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 2+ goals

40%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

55%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin attack 1.35 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

41%

level

25%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin scores more

34%

Ludwigsfelde at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff