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Ludwigsfelde vs BFC Preussen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
CANC
17:00
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
7/24/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ludwigsfelde28%
×Draw24%
BFC Preussen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.23
BFC Preussen
1.70

BFC Preussen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
0.71
BFC Preussen
1.25

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
2.14
BFC Preussen
1.75

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
52%
Ludwigsfelde or BFC Preussen
76%
Draw or BFC Preussen
72%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
11%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
71%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
35%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
13%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
82%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
51%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
36%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.71 + BFC Preussen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

BFC Preussen attack 1.25 + Ludwigsfelde defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
28%
level
24%
BFC Preussen scores more
48%

BFC Preussen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ludwigsfelde face BFC Preussen (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Ludwigsfelde hosting BFC Preussen. Match starts July 24, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.