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Ludwigsfelde vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
11/4/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ludwigsfelde50%
×Draw23%
Arnstadt27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.78
Arnstadt
1.24

Ludwigsfelde creates 44% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.10
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.54
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
73%
Ludwigsfelde or Arnstadt
77%
Draw or Arnstadt
50%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
27%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
83%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
53%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
26%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
71%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
35%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
65%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.78

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
50%
level
23%
Arnstadt scores more
27%

Ludwigsfelde at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Ludwigsfelde 2–2 Arnstadt

Ludwigsfelde and Arnstadt drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Ludwigsfelde.