Ludwigsfelde 1–0 An der Fahner Höhe: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

An der Fahner Höhe

3/18/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 25Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ludwigsfelde40%

×Draw26%

An der Fahner Höhe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchAn der Fahner Höhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.29

Ludwigsfelde

1.40

An der Fahner Höhe

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

1.10

creates per match

1.03

1.54

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.10

An der Fahner Höhe

1.03

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.54

An der Fahner Höhe

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

65%

Ludwigsfelde or An der Fahner Höhe

74%

Draw or An der Fahner Höhe

60%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

18%

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

75%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

41%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

17%

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

72%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

37%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

53%

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

40%

level

26%

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

35%

Ludwigsfelde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff