Ludogorets 2–1 Vereya Stara Zagora: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vereya Stara Zagora

9/14/2018

First League · Round 8Ludogorets Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ludogorets87%

×Draw10%

Vereya Stara Zagora3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

0.38

Ludogorets

2.81

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.38

Ludogorets creates 639% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 16 away

2.38

creates per match

0.19

0.57

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Ludogorets

2.38

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.19

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.57

Vereya Stara Zagora

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

97%

Ludogorets or Vereya Stara Zagora

90%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

13%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

67%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

94%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

76%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

52%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

32%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

6%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

97%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.81

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Ludogorets scores more

87%

level

10%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

3%

Ludogorets at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff