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Ludogorets vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
10/17/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ludogorets67%
×Draw21%
Tsarsko Selo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.86
Tsarsko Selo
0.63

Ludogorets creates 195% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
88%
Ludogorets or Tsarsko Selo
79%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
33%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
40%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
84%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
55%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
28%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
47%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
13%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
85%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ludogorets scores more
67%
level
21%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
12%

Ludogorets at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ludogorets 1–1 Tsarsko Selo

Ludogorets and Tsarsko Selo drew 1-1 in First League on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.