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Ludogorets vs Fenerbahçe — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
11/9/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ludogorets50%
×Draw25%
Fenerbahçe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.64
Fenerbahçe
1.10

Ludogorets creates 49% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
1.60
Fenerbahçe
2.00

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.20
Fenerbahçe
1.67

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
74%
Ludogorets or Fenerbahçe
75%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
50%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
26%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
81%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
49%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
23%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
67%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
30%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
66%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.60 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + Ludogorets defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ludogorets scores more
50%
level
25%
Fenerbahçe scores more
26%

Ludogorets at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Fenerbahçe

Ludogorets beat Fenerbahçe 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.