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Ludogorets vs Fehérvár FC — UEFA Champions League 2018

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
7/25/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundLudogorets Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ludogorets50%
×Draw29%
Fehérvár FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.29
Fehérvár FC
0.71

Ludogorets creates 82% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
1.83
Fehérvár FC
0.75

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.67
Fehérvár FC
0.75

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
79%
Ludogorets or Fehérvár FC
71%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
50%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
24%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
72%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
37%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
14%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
51%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
16%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
71%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fehérvár FC attack 0.75 + Ludogorets defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ludogorets scores more
50%
level
29%
Fehérvár FC scores more
21%

Ludogorets at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Fehérvár FC

Ludogorets and Fehérvár FC drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on July 25, 2018.

The match was played at Ludogorets Arena in Razgrad.