Ludogorets 2–1 Botev Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Botev Plovdiv

8/31/2025

First League · Round 7Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ludogorets63%

×Draw20%

Botev Plovdiv17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.98

Ludogorets

2.11

Botev Plovdiv

0.98

Ludogorets creates 115% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.28

creates per match

1.25

0.71

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ludogorets

2.28

Botev Plovdiv

1.25

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.71

Botev Plovdiv

1.94

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Ludogorets-0.17scores less

Botev Plovdiv+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Botev Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

83%

Ludogorets or Botev Plovdiv

80%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv

37%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

39%

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

88%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

62%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

35%

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

62%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

26%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

79%

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.71 · 9 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.94 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.28 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.11

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.25 + Ludogorets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ludogorets scores more

63%

level

20%

Botev Plovdiv scores more

17%

Ludogorets at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff