Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 120+ matches
Ludogorets61%
Arda Kardzhali16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ludogorets creates 127% more chances
Season form · 138 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ludogorets ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches
Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.77
Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Ludogorets at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Ludogorets host Arda Kardzhali on Monday, 15 April 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets beat Arda Kardzhali 2-0 in First League on April 15, 2024.
Goals: K. Duah (30'), J. Piotrowski (42').
Ludogorets controlled possession (68%) and registered 23 shots to 8.
The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.