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Arda Kardzhali vs Ludogorets — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
12/4/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali29%
×Draw26%
Ludogorets45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.14
Ludogorets
1.47

Ludogorets creates 29% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 133 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Ludogorets
1.83

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Ludogorets
0.83

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
55%
Arda Kardzhali or Ludogorets
74%
Draw or Ludogorets
71%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
12%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
68%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
32%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
11%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
77%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
43%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
40%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
29%
level
26%
Ludogorets scores more
45%

Ludogorets at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arda Kardzhali 0–4 Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Arda Kardzhali 4-0 in First League on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.