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Ludogorets III vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
FT
7 – 0
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
8/25/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 2Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ludogorets III75%
×Draw14%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets III
2.84
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
0.98

Ludogorets III creates 190% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ludogorets III
3.38
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Ludogorets III
0.67
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw
90%
Ludogorets III or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
86%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
25%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+
55%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals
94%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
77%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
53%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
62%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
26%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
88%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.84

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ludogorets III scores more
75%
level
14%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
10%

Ludogorets III at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ludogorets III 7–0 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Ludogorets III beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 7-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.