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Ludogorets II vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Second League 2018

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
3/31/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ludogorets II60%
×Draw22%
Maritsa Plovdiv18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
1.86
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.90

Ludogorets II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
1.84
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.75

allows per match

Ludogorets II
1.05
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.88

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
82%
Ludogorets II or Maritsa Plovdiv
78%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
40%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
35%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
84%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
55%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
28%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
59%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
23%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
77%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 0.75 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
60%
level
22%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
18%

Ludogorets II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets II vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Ludogorets II beat Maritsa Plovdiv 5-0 in Second League on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.