Ludogorets II 2–1 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Ludogorets II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hebar 1918

D. Ivanov 81'

P. Kirev 25'

Y. Angelov 45'

12/12/2025

Second League · Round 14PFC Ludogorets 1945 Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ludogorets II48%

×Draw25%

Hebar 191827%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.17

Ludogorets II

1.63

Hebar 1918

1.17

Ludogorets II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 56 away

1.87

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ludogorets II

1.87

Hebar 1918

1.29

allows per match

Ludogorets II

1.05

Hebar 1918

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw

73%

Ludogorets II or Hebar 1918

75%

Draw or Hebar 1918

52%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

25%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

80%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

48%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

22%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

69%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

33%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

64%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.05 · 114 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.87 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hebar 1918 attack 1.29 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ludogorets II scores more

48%

level

25%

Hebar 1918 scores more

27%

Ludogorets II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

24'

25'

45'

46'

Y. Georgiev← Pipa

51'

K. Velchev

64'

K. Nikolov← S. Shishkov

71'

Y. Yordanov← E. Syrov

73'

D. Kalchev

73'

D. Kalchev

78'

D. Ivanov← A. Marinov

81'

D. Ivanov

82'

V. Dotsev← K. Velchev

86'

A. Petrov

86'

I. Dishkov← B. Bozhurkin

90+3'

D. Hristov

90+4'

G. Valchev

90+5'

D. Ivanov

Ludogorets

Hebar

99

18

17

20

14

▼

Velchev

29

⚽

Angelov

2

Kamenov

24

▼

77

21

9

67

80

58

42

▼

Shishkov

32

▼

81

83

76

40

▼

Marinov

90

⚽

Kirev

75

▼

Syrov

Manager: Zahari Sirakov

46'▲Y. Georgiev←▼Pipa

64'▲K. Nikolov←▼S. Shishkov

71'▲Y. Yordanov←▼E. Syrov

78'▲D. Ivanov←▼A. Marinov

Ludogorets II substitutes

69Stoimenov51Karchev93Yordanov97Nikolov22Mustafa56Georgiev63Gatinski62Ivanov

Manager: Nikolay Mitov

82'▲V. Dotsev←▼K. Velchev

86'▲I. Dishkov←▼B. Bozhurkin

Hebar 1918 substitutes

12Gruev23Dishkov10Dotsev84Georgievski70Mechev55Goranov19Kuzev