Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ludogorets II vs Dunav Ruse — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
CANC
13:00
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
1/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ludogorets II59%
×Draw20%
Dunav Ruse21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
2.23
Dunav Ruse
1.27

Ludogorets II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
2.89
Dunav Ruse
1.86

allows per match

Ludogorets II
0.67
Dunav Ruse
1.57

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
79%
Ludogorets II or Dunav Ruse
80%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
41%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
37%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
89%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
65%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
38%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
72%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
36%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
74%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 2.89 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dunav Ruse attack 1.86 + Ludogorets II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
59%
level
20%
Dunav Ruse scores more
21%

Ludogorets II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ludogorets II face Dunav Ruse (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Ludogorets II hosting Dunav Ruse. Match starts January 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.