Ludogorets II 2–0 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Ludogorets II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dunav Ruse

12/15/2023

Second League · Round 18Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ludogorets II46%

×Draw26%

Dunav Ruse29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.12

Ludogorets II

1.49

Dunav Ruse

1.12

Ludogorets II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 69 away

1.84

creates per match

1.19

1.05

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ludogorets II

1.84

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Ludogorets II

1.05

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw

71%

Ludogorets II or Dunav Ruse

74%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

54%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

23%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

77%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

44%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

19%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

67%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

31%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

62%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ludogorets II scores more

46%

level

26%

Dunav Ruse scores more

29%

Ludogorets II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff