Ludogorets II 2–2 CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Ludogorets II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

4/8/2024

Second League · Round 27Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Ludogorets II45%

×Draw25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Ludogorets II

1.54

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.20

Ludogorets II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 71 away

1.83

creates per match

1.35

1.05

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ludogorets II

1.83

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.35

allows per match

Ludogorets II

1.05

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw

70%

Ludogorets II or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

75%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

55%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

23%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

79%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

45%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

20%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

70%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

34%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

60%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.05 · 126 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.83 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ludogorets II scores more

45%

level

25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

30%

Ludogorets II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff