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Ludesch vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Ludesch
Ludesch
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
11/9/2024Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 14Sportplatz SV Ludesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ludesch50%
×Draw20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludesch
2.41
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.86

Ludesch creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ludesch
1.58
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.62

allows per match

Ludesch
2.11
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.23

finishing

Ludesch+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludesch ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Ludesch or draw
70%
Ludesch or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
80%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
50%

Winning margin

Ludesch wins by 2+
31%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ludesch 1+ goals
91%
Ludesch 2+ goals
69%
Ludesch 3+ goals
43%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
84%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
55%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ludesch (draw refunded)
62%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludesch at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.11 · 73 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludesch attack 1.58 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.41

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.62 + Ludesch defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ludesch scores more
50%
level
20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
30%

Ludesch at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ludesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludesch vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Ludesch beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Ludesch in Ludesch.