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Ludesch vs Koblach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Ludesch
Ludesch
FT
4 – 0
Koblach
Koblach
6/10/2023Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 30Sportplatz SV Ludesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludesch45%
×Draw21%
Koblach34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludesch
2.13
Koblach
1.82

Ludesch creates 17% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ludesch
1.58
Koblach
1.53

allows per match

Ludesch
2.11
Koblach
2.67

finishing

Ludesch+0.00on par
Koblach+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludesch ↓

Koblach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ludesch or draw
66%
Ludesch or Koblach
79%
Draw or Koblach
55%

Winning margin

Ludesch wins by 2+
26%
Koblach wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ludesch 1+ goals
88%
Ludesch 2+ goals
63%
Ludesch 3+ goals
35%
Koblach 1+ goals
84%
Koblach 2+ goals
54%
Koblach 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ludesch (draw refunded)
57%
Koblach (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludesch at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.11 · 73 matches

Koblach away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludesch attack 1.58 + Koblach defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Koblach attack 1.53 + Ludesch defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ludesch scores more
45%
level
21%
Koblach scores more
34%

Ludesch at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ludesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludesch vs Koblach

Ludesch beat Koblach 4-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Ludesch in Ludesch.