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Lucksta vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Lucksta
Lucksta
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Umea FF
Umea FF
8/17/2024Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 17Sörforsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lucksta25%
×Draw21%
Umea FF54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lucksta
1.36
Umea FF
2.11

Umea FF creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lucksta
1.90
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Lucksta
2.13
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Lucksta+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lucksta ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lucksta or draw
46%
Lucksta or Umea FF
79%
Draw or Umea FF
75%

Winning margin

Lucksta wins by 2+
10%
Umea FF wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Lucksta 1+ goals
74%
Lucksta 2+ goals
39%
Lucksta 3+ goals
16%
Umea FF 1+ goals
88%
Umea FF 2+ goals
62%
Umea FF 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Lucksta (draw refunded)
31%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lucksta at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lucksta attack 1.90 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Lucksta defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lucksta scores more
25%
level
21%
Umea FF scores more
54%

Umea FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lucksta vs Umea FF

Umea FF beat Lucksta 4-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sörforsvallen in Sundsvall.