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Lucko vs Segesta Sisak — Second NL 2022

Lucko
Lucko
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Segesta Sisak
Segesta Sisak
9/13/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 4Igralište Lučkog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lucko44%
×Draw25%
Segesta Sisak31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lucko
1.56
Segesta Sisak
1.27

Lucko creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lucko
1.20
Segesta Sisak
1.27

allows per match

Lucko
1.27
Segesta Sisak
1.93

finishing

Lucko+0.00on par
Segesta Sisak+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lucko ↓

Segesta Sisak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lucko or draw
69%
Lucko or Segesta Sisak
75%
Draw or Segesta Sisak
56%

Winning margin

Lucko wins by 2+
22%
Segesta Sisak wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lucko 1+ goals
79%
Lucko 2+ goals
46%
Lucko 3+ goals
21%
Segesta Sisak 1+ goals
72%
Segesta Sisak 2+ goals
36%
Segesta Sisak 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lucko (draw refunded)
59%
Segesta Sisak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lucko at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Segesta Sisak away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lucko attack 1.20 + Segesta Sisak defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

Segesta Sisak attack 1.27 + Lucko defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lucko scores more
44%
level
25%
Segesta Sisak scores more
31%

Lucko at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lucko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lucko vs Segesta Sisak

Segesta Sisak beat Lucko 2-0 in Second NL on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište Lučkog in Zagreb.