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Lucko vs NK Osijek II — First NL 2018

Lucko
Lucko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
3/23/2019First NLFirst NL · Round 17Igralište Lučkog (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lucko43%
×Draw29%
NK Osijek II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lucko
1.25
NK Osijek II
0.94

Lucko creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 55 away

creates per match

Lucko
1.07
NK Osijek II
1.02

allows per match

Lucko
0.86
NK Osijek II
1.42

finishing

Lucko+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lucko ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lucko or draw
72%
Lucko or NK Osijek II
71%
Draw or NK Osijek II
57%

Winning margin

Lucko wins by 2+
19%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lucko 1+ goals
71%
Lucko 2+ goals
36%
Lucko 3+ goals
13%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
61%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
24%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lucko (draw refunded)
61%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lucko at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lucko attack 1.07 + NK Osijek II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

NK Osijek II attack 1.02 + Lucko defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lucko scores more
43%
level
29%
NK Osijek II scores more
28%

Lucko at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lucko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Lucko 1–0 NK Osijek II

Lucko beat NK Osijek II 1-0 in First NL on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Igralište Lučkog (Zagreb).