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Lucko vs HNK Hajduk Split II — First NL 2018

Lucko
Lucko
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
9/27/2017First NLFirst NL · Round 8Igralište Lučkog (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lucko41%
×Draw27%
HNK Hajduk Split II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lucko
1.32
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.11

Lucko creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

creates per match

Lucko
1.07
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.36

allows per match

Lucko
0.86
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.57

finishing

Lucko+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lucko ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lucko or draw
69%
Lucko or HNK Hajduk Split II
73%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
59%

Winning margin

Lucko wins by 2+
19%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lucko 1+ goals
73%
Lucko 2+ goals
38%
Lucko 3+ goals
15%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
67%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
30%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lucko (draw refunded)
57%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lucko at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lucko attack 1.07 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.36 + Lucko defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lucko scores more
41%
level
27%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
31%

Lucko at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lucko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lucko vs HNK Hajduk Split II

Lucko and HNK Hajduk Split II drew 2-2 in First NL on September 27, 2017.

The match was played at Igralište Lučkog (Zagreb).