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Luckenwalde vs Greifswalder FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Luckenwalde
Luckenwalde
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Limak Arcadia Golf Hotel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Luckenwalde47%
×Draw22%
Greifswalder FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luckenwalde
1.89
Greifswalder FC
1.51

Luckenwalde creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luckenwalde
2.00
Greifswalder FC
2.22

allows per match

Luckenwalde
0.80
Greifswalder FC
1.78

finishing

Luckenwalde+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luckenwalde ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Luckenwalde or draw
69%
Luckenwalde or Greifswalder FC
78%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
53%

Winning margin

Luckenwalde wins by 2+
26%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luckenwalde 1+ goals
85%
Luckenwalde 2+ goals
56%
Luckenwalde 3+ goals
29%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
78%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
44%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luckenwalde (draw refunded)
60%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luckenwalde at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luckenwalde attack 2.00 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Greifswalder FC attack 2.22 + Luckenwalde defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luckenwalde scores more
47%
level
22%
Greifswalder FC scores more
31%

Luckenwalde at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luckenwalde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luckenwalde vs Greifswalder FC

Greifswalder FC beat Luckenwalde 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Limak Arcadia Golf Hotel in Belek.