Luch-Energiya 0–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Luch-Energiya

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

8/10/2019

First League · Round 7Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Luch-Energiya30%

×Draw30%

Torpedo Moskva40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luch-EnergiyaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.14

Luch-Energiya

0.94

Torpedo Moskva

1.14

Torpedo Moskva creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 104 away

0.82

creates per match

1.22

1.05

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Luch-Energiya

0.82

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Luch-Energiya

1.05

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luch-Energiya ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Luch-Energiya or draw

60%

Luch-Energiya or Torpedo Moskva

70%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

70%

Winning margin

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+

11%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals

61%

Luch-Energiya 2+ goals

24%

Luch-Energiya 3+ goals

7%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)

43%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luch-Energiya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luch-Energiya attack 0.82 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luch-Energiya scores more

30%

level

30%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

40%

Torpedo Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff