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Luch-Energiya vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11/12/2017First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Dinamo (Vladivostok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Luch-Energiya39%
×Draw29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luch-Energiya
1.15
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.02

Luch-Energiya creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 123 away

creates per match

Luch-Energiya
0.82
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Luch-Energiya
1.05
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luch-Energiya ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Luch-Energiya or draw
68%
Luch-Energiya or Shinnik Yaroslavl
71%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
61%

Winning margin

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
68%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
32%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
11%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
64%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
55%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luch-Energiya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luch-Energiya attack 0.82 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luch-Energiya scores more
39%
level
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
32%

Luch-Energiya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luch-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Luch-Energiya 3–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Luch-Energiya beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on November 12, 2017.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo (Vladivostok).