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Luch-Energiya vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
9/1/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Dinamo (Vladivostok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luch-Energiya41%
×Draw29%
Mordovia Saransk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luch-Energiya
1.22
Mordovia Saransk
1.02

Luch-Energiya creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

creates per match

Luch-Energiya
0.82
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Luch-Energiya
1.05
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luch-Energiya ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luch-Energiya or draw
69%
Luch-Energiya or Mordovia Saransk
71%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
59%

Winning margin

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
18%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
70%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
34%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
12%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
64%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
27%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
57%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luch-Energiya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luch-Energiya attack 0.82 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luch-Energiya scores more
41%
level
29%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
31%

Luch-Energiya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luch-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luch-Energiya vs Mordovia Saransk

Mordovia Saransk beat Luch-Energiya 1-0 in First League on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo (Vladivostok).