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Luch-Energiya vs Khimki — First League 2018

Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Khimki
Khimki
7/7/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Luch-Energiya30%
×Draw29%
Khimki41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luch-Energiya
1.00
Khimki
1.22

Khimki creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 51 away

creates per match

Luch-Energiya
0.82
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Luch-Energiya
1.05
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luch-Energiya ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Luch-Energiya or draw
59%
Luch-Energiya or Khimki
71%
Draw or Khimki
70%

Winning margin

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
11%
Khimki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
63%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
26%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
8%
Khimki 1+ goals
70%
Khimki 2+ goals
34%
Khimki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
42%
Khimki (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luch-Energiya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luch-Energiya attack 0.82 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Khimki attack 1.39 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luch-Energiya scores more
30%
level
29%
Khimki scores more
41%

Khimki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Luch-Energiya 2–5 Khimki

Khimki beat Luch-Energiya 5-2 in First League on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.