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Luch-Energiya vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
4/7/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Stadion Dinamo (Vladivostok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Luch-Energiya37%
×Draw28%
Chertanovo Moscow35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luch-Energiya
1.18
Chertanovo Moscow
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 54 away

creates per match

Luch-Energiya
0.82
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Luch-Energiya
1.05
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luch-Energiya ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luch-Energiya or draw
65%
Luch-Energiya or Chertanovo Moscow
72%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
63%

Winning margin

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
16%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
69%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
33%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
12%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
68%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
31%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
52%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luch-Energiya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luch-Energiya attack 0.82 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luch-Energiya scores more
37%
level
28%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
35%

Luch-Energiya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luch-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Luch-Energiya 0–0 Chertanovo Moscow

Luch-Energiya and Chertanovo Moscow drew 0-0 in First League on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo (Vladivostok).