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Lubumbashi Sport vs Tanganyika — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
CANC
14:00
Tanganyika
Tanganyika
3/23/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport36%
×Draw30%
Tanganyika34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
1.09
Tanganyika
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Tanganyika
0.94

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Tanganyika
1.29

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Tanganyika+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Tanganyika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
66%
Lubumbashi Sport or Tanganyika
70%
Draw or Tanganyika
64%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
14%
Tanganyika wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
66%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
30%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
10%
Tanganyika 1+ goals
65%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
29%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Tanganyika (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Tanganyika away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Tanganyika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tanganyika attack 0.94 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
36%
level
30%
Tanganyika scores more
34%

Lubumbashi Sport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lubumbashi Sport face Tanganyika (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Lubumbashi Sport hosting Tanganyika. Match starts March 23, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lubumbashi Sport host Tanganyika at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.