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Lubumbashi Sport vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
FT
2 – 1
Panda B5
Panda B5
3/30/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport52%
×Draw27%
Panda B521%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
1.44
Panda B5
0.79

Lubumbashi Sport creates 82% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 52 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
79%
Lubumbashi Sport or Panda B5
73%
Draw or Panda B5
48%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
26%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
76%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
42%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
18%
Panda B5 1+ goals
55%
Panda B5 2+ goals
19%
Panda B5 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
72%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.44

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
52%
level
27%
Panda B5 scores more
21%

Lubumbashi Sport at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lubumbashi Sport vs Panda B5

Lubumbashi Sport beat Panda B5 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 30, 2026.