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Lubumbashi Sport vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
FT
1 – 2
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
11/4/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport29%
×Draw30%
Motema Pembe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
0.92
Motema Pembe
1.16

Motema Pembe creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
59%
Lubumbashi Sport or Motema Pembe
70%
Draw or Motema Pembe
71%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
10%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
60%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
23%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
7%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
69%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
32%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
41%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
29%
level
30%
Motema Pembe scores more
41%

Motema Pembe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lubumbashi Sport vs Motema Pembe

Motema Pembe beat Lubumbashi Sport 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.