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Lubumbashi Sport vs Malole — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malole
Malole
1/26/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport46%
×Draw28%
Malole26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
1.33
Malole
0.91

Lubumbashi Sport creates 46% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Malole
0.64

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Malole
1.76

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Malole+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Malole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
74%
Lubumbashi Sport or Malole
72%
Draw or Malole
54%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
22%
Malole wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
74%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
38%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
15%
Malole 1+ goals
60%
Malole 2+ goals
23%
Malole 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
64%
Malole (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Malole away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Malole defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.33

Malole attack 0.64 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
46%
level
28%
Malole scores more
26%

Lubumbashi Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Lubumbashi Sport 1–0 Malole

Lubumbashi Sport beat Malole 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 26, 2026.