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Lubumbashi Sport vs Etoile de Kivu — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
CANC
11:30
Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
5/28/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport40%
×Draw29%
Etoile de Kivu31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Etoile de Kivu
0.99

Lubumbashi Sport creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Etoile de Kivu
0.80

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Etoile de Kivu
1.46

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Etoile de Kivu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
69%
Lubumbashi Sport or Etoile de Kivu
71%
Draw or Etoile de Kivu
60%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
17%
Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
69%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
33%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
12%
Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
63%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
26%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
57%
Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
40%
level
29%
Etoile de Kivu scores more
31%

Lubumbashi Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lubumbashi Sport host Etoile de Kivu

May 28, 2023: Lubumbashi Sport take on Etoile de Kivu in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lubumbashi Sport host Etoile de Kivu at Stade du TP Mazembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.