Lublinianka 2–0 Unia Tarnow: Result & Stats

Lublinianka

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Unia Tarnow

8/20/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka38%

×Draw23%

Unia Tarnow39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LubliniankaExpected goals in this matchUnia Tarnow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.64

Lublinianka

1.63

Unia Tarnow

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.94

creates per match

1.16

2.12

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Lublinianka

0.94

Unia Tarnow

1.16

allows per match

Lublinianka

2.12

Unia Tarnow

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Unia Tarnow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw

61%

Lublinianka or Unia Tarnow

77%

Draw or Unia Tarnow

62%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+

19%

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals

80%

Lublinianka 2+ goals

48%

Lublinianka 3+ goals

22%

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

81%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

49%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)

50%

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.63

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lublinianka scores more

38%

level

23%

Unia Tarnow scores more

39%

Unia Tarnow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Tarnow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff