Lublinianka vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Lublinianka19%
Stal Stalowa Wola59%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stal Stalowa Wola creates 93% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lublinianka ↓
Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches
Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00
Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Stal Stalowa Wola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Wisła Puławy
Sokół SieniawaStal Stalowa Wola
Avia Świdnik
Wisłoka Dębica
Chełmianka Chełm
Podhale Nowy Targ
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
KSZO 1929
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Cracovia Kraków II
Wisła Sandomierz
Łagów
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Wiązownica
Lewart
Korona Kielce II
Stal Kraśnik
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Hetman ZamoscIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Lublinianka host Stal Stalowa Wola on Saturday, 17 June 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 4 2020/2021 season.
III Liga - Group 4: Lublinianka 0–5 Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola beat Lublinianka 5-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 17, 2023.
The match was played at Stadion Lublinianki in Lublin.