Lublinianka 3–0 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Lublinianka

FT

3 – 0

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

11/12/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka32%

×Draw24%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LubliniankaExpected goals in this matchOrlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.71

Lublinianka

1.42

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.71

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

0.94

creates per match

1.30

2.12

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Lublinianka

0.94

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.30

allows per match

Lublinianka

2.12

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw

56%

Lublinianka or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

76%

Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

68%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+

15%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals

76%

Lublinianka 2+ goals

41%

Lublinianka 3+ goals

17%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

82%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

51%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)

42%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.42

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lublinianka scores more

32%

level

24%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

44%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff