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Lublinianka vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lublinianka
Lublinianka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Łagów
Łagów
10/15/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka21%
×Draw24%
Łagów55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lublinianka
0.98
Łagów
1.74

Łagów creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lublinianka
0.94
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Lublinianka
2.12
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw
45%
Lublinianka or Łagów
76%
Draw or Łagów
79%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+
7%
Łagów wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals
62%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
26%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
8%
Łagów 1+ goals
82%
Łagów 2+ goals
52%
Łagów 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)
28%
Łagów (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Łagów attack 1.36 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lublinianka scores more
21%
level
24%
Łagów scores more
55%

Łagów at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lublinianka 0–1 Łagów

Łagów beat Lublinianka 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lublinianki in Lublin.